QAV 449 – 2021 Lessons Dumpster Fire
This episode is mostly a recap of lessons learned, highlights and lowlights of 2021. We talk about our portfolio performances (eg the QAV portfolio, and our own personal portfolios) in this difficult calendar year, Tony talks about how there seems to be a crisis every three years, and we answer a couple of questions about calculated sentiment and staying fully invested during downturns.
This week we talk about the market’s reaction to Omicron, the new AF worksheet, builders collapsing, Howard Mark’s latest memo, new sells, our top stocks of last week, our stocks picks for this week and whether or not we should go to cash in the current market and wait for things to improve.
In the club edition, we also talk about why we’re not buying into ETFs and LICs, what TK thinks about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list, and if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time, regardless of buy price.
And, of course, The Beatles.
If there’s one thing most people know about the Emperor Nero, it’s that he fiddled while Rome burned and that he falsely blamed the Christians. But how much of those stories are true? To find out, I’m joined today by Stephen Dando-Collins, author of “The Great Fire Of Rome” and his latest book “Constantine At The Bridge – How the battle of the Milvian Bridge Created Christian Rome”.
Alberti wrote that before you could paint someone naked, you first had to paint their bones. LDV said “hold my beer – I’m going to paint their NERVES.” And he didn’t stop there. He wanted to understand every single aspect of how the human body worked. Most of it had nothing to do with painting – it was just science for the sake of science.
The Russians attack Amin’s palace without him realising what is happening. He still thinks they are on his side, right up until the moment they put a bullet in him. But before they storm the palace, they first try poison.
The Chinese sent the US and UN enough warnings that they wouldn’t idly stand by and allow forces to march into North Korea in 1950. But the US refused to listen. Their arrogance and racist worldview made it impossible to listen. Bizarrely, they interpreted Chinese warnings and probes in October as simply evidence of weakness and reluctance to fight. And while most Americans today know little about the Korean War, the Chinese have not forgotten the lessons of how to deal with the United States.
Stock Doctor have stopped issuing their “Lincoln Valuations” (what we call the SD IV), NAB breached its sell line but also went ex-div, we sold CLX from the QAV portfolio, coal price is dropping, VTG on the buy list, ECX has new results, HAW now in the iron ore business, Stocks Of The Week are YOW and PRU, and does Rule #1 apply to small caps.
In the Club edition, we also talk about whether or not QAV is shifting markets, will ECX settle down when the buy back is complete, 3PTL lines for SUL, and how to live with a choppy market.
Continuing on from our last episodes about Afghanistan, we look at the first days of the Russian invasion in December 1979 and dispel some common myths about the Soviet’s intentions.
Still convinced the Chinese weren’t going to give him any trouble, MacArthur pushed his troops closer to the Chinese border. When Mao attacked in late October, he decimated American and ROK troops. When they managed to capture a couple of soldiers who happily identified themselves as Chinese, fighting as part of a huge Chinese force coming to aid the North Koreans, the Americans refused to believe it. Over and over and over. Because it’s impossible to understand something you are paid not to understand.
This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week – ATP & SUL.
In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.
We’re jumping out of our Nero timeline this week to talk to Stephen Dando-Collins about his new book, “Constantine At The Bridge – How the battle of the Milvian Bridge Created Christian Rome”, which examines the background of the events that lead to the famous battle took place late in October 312 CE – and what happened next.