According to Truman, he never intended for the CIA to be a “Cloak & Dagger Outfit”. It was intended to be a centralized reporting agency, not to act as a spy organization. Today we start a series about how the CIA rose from the ashes of Wild Bill Donovan’s incompetent OSS after WWII.

Savonarola was notified that he and his closest colleagues had been condemned to die. His most ardent believers had faith that the Lord would save him at the last minute, but, yet again, God didn’t show up for work. At 1pm, May 23, 1498, they were degraded then burned in the Piazza della Signoria. And now Florence needs to get its shit together. Do they bring back the Medici? Join the Holy League? And what can they learn from the Savonarola episode?

Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book ‘Low Rates High Returns’. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.

Tony discusses the latest movements of “Doctor Copper” and explains why that’s important; we talk about CAPE & Kelly and TK explains his recent analysis; and we answer your questions about how we should take into account a company’s level of debt; giving a stock extra points if it is significantly below its Intrinsic Valuation; fudging the buy line for IGN; KCN being cash flow negative; ranking companies higher measured by return on shareholder capital; estimating future profits of growth companies who stop spending money on marketing; and the Health Ratios for MQG.

John Winters is the CEO of Superhero, the latest digital broking app to hit the Australian market, which offers $5 flat rate trades. A few of our listeners were concerned about how Superhero “owns” the stock that you buy through their app, so we invited John on to explain how it works and why we should all relax.

On today’s show: AJO quits. Unemployment in Oz at record levels. What does Tony do when he finds a “screaming buy” but can’t understand the underlying rational for the business? Calculating the SSG 3PTL sell price. Net Operating Cashflow vs Net Equity.

The trials of Savonarola begin. First he is put on trial by the Signoria of Florence for his political interference. Then he is put on trial by the Pope for his religious accusations and claims of prophecy. This being Catholic Italy, part of the trial involves torture – the strappado. Under torture Savonarola confesses to making everything up and being a big old fake.


Gnaeus Domitius Corbulo – brother-in-law of Caligula – is sent by Claudius to Germany to deal with some rebellious tribes. But he’s TOO successful, so Claudius calls him home. Messalina decides to get married again – while still married to Claudius. Surprisingly he isn’t too happy about it when he finds out. So she has a date – with a sword.

Tito’s form of Communism quickly became much more liberal that those in the Soviet bloc countries and China. The question is why? The collectivisation of land was put in reverse. The police were reformed and the press was given additional freedoms. Tito turned the tables on Stalin, accusing the USSR of abandoning socialist principles in favour of imperialist expansion.

Bill Liao was one of Australia’s original tech entrepreneurs. Today he’s a Partner at SOS Ventures in Ireland where he manages their investments in the life sciences. He’s also a passionate social entrepreneur who has founded a number of important charities. We invited him on to chat about how a VC values a tech startup. Follow Bill on Twitter.

Alan Blotcky is a clinical psychologist in private practice in Birmingham, Alabama. He was written a number of articles over the last year in which he says that, in his professional opinion, Donald Trump is a psychopath and a narcissist. I spoke to him today about psychopaths in positions of power in the US and what to do about them.

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This week we discuss whether or not high levels of director ownership is good or bad; how Tony manages his portfolio allocation; broker commissions, CRN, HJPN, LAU, and the SAR and NST merger, and more!

Messalina starts killing off men who refuse her sexual advances or who just have something she wants. Meanwhile, Claudius keeps being a nice guy and the people feel sorry for him.

Tito has his own Central Committee member Žujović arrested for treason, which leads the Cominform to expel Yugoslavia. This creates a rift between the pro=Soviet Yugoslav Communists and the pro-Tito Communists, and Tito sends thousands of “Cominformists” to slave in the camp on Goli Otok. To show that he could out-Stalin Stalin, he announced there would be ‘greater boldness and a faster pace in setting up collective farms’, which caused violent resistance in certain areas of the country. Stalin then sends agents from SMERSH to assassinate Tito.


Eddie Van Halen is playing with Jimi in Elysium tonight. In other stories, we talk about the “debate”, Trump and covid, mutually exacerbating catastrophes, Middle East “peace” and scenarios that could lead to a new US Civil War.

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This week we talk about why volatility and risk are not the same thing and why we embrace volatility in our portfolio. We also discuss how the ATO treats “investors” versus “traders”, the HAW dividend / capital return, and more!

Tensions between Yugoslavia and the USSR continue to increase in the late 40s, eventually erupting when the Soviets declared the Yugoslav Communist Party was undemocratic and neither Marxist-Leninist nor Bolshevik.